The Fantasy Theory

Plenty went wrong this year in my leagues. All three teams suffered the Week 1 shock of Ryan Grant going down for the year with a leg injury. Who is to say if he would have had a great year? And yes, all fantasy teams suffered injuries throughout the course of the season. The real question is, did it matter? In the one league I had a good finish (2nd place), I had three good RBs (Charles, McFadden, and Forte) so the loss of Grant did not hurt too much. In another league, my RB depth was poor, and in fact crippled with the subsequent loss of Pierre Thomas for most of the season. It's why depth is so important and you usually can't get by with just a good starting lineup and no bench.

Mike Wallace- Drafted as an WR3, I loved the prospect of Wallace replacing Hines Ward as the Steelers #1 receiver this year. Wallace proved he can garner consistent fantasy points by hauling in the one bomb TD a game, or catching seven or eight passes and finishing with 100 yards. Finished a top-10 fantasy wideout.

Jamaal Charles- Watching him play at the end of last season, he looked like a poor man's Chris Johnson, and perhaps that description is not doing him justice. This year he was better than CJ, finishing as a top-5 RB. His electricity should make him a top-10 overall pick next year.

Philip Rivers- Preseason, there was much chatter about how Ryan Mathews was going to be a top-10 fantasy back. I was not convinced; not because he isn't good, but because rookies so often do not have a great first season. Anyway, I didn't think Mathews production would hurt Rivers. Plus, Rivers is getting better every year, and I felt he would really ratchet up the stats this year. He did, and was a top-5 QB.

Randy *%$&^! Moss- When I initially ranked my players this year, before looking at any expert advice, I had Moss as my #10 ranked WR. I could not get over those couple of games towards the end of last year where he really seemed to mail it in. But then I read the hype, everyone loved him, he was a safe pick, and I began to believe it. I really wanted Andre Johnson, but in the two drafts where I would've picked him, he was chosen right before me. So I ended up with Moss in two leagues, essentially a wasted #1 pick. To quote Abe Vigoda in the Snickers commercial, "That hurts".

Arian Foster- Here is where hype did pay off. By draft day, I was honestly sick of hearing about him. How could a guy who no one has seen play suddenly be a 4th round pick? Well, now I'm a believer and so is everyone else. Foster has entered the number one pick discussion with AP and CJ for 2011.

Joe Flacco- It's not that Flacco was a bust. He just didn't deliver the gaudy numbers I was hoping for this year. On this blog, I predicted 30 TDs and 4500 yards. The yards prognostication was silly and I think I meant to say 4000 yards. Anyway, Flacco tossed 25 TDs and threw for 3,500 yards. I was expecting a top-5 QB, I got a top-11 QB. The good thing was Flacco was quite consistent throughout the year, offering only two real stinkers in the first two games, and double-digit points every week following. I still like Flacco, but my expectations have been tempered.

Next year, the first round in drafts will be very interesting. I believe three guys are worthy of a #1 pick (AP, CJ, Foster). Five other RBs are worthy of a 1st round pick (McCoy, Rice, MJD, Charles, McFadden) and you couldn't be faulted for selecting a Mendenhall or Turner-type late in the 1st round. Could be an all RB 1st round. Is any receiver 1st round-worthy? Maybe White, AJ, Calvin Johnson, or Nicks, late in the round. I'm probably more inclined to take one of the aforementioned backs there. And where will Mike Vick go? I predict in some drafts, people will take him 4th overall. Where cooler minds prevail, I think we will see him go around the snake of rounds 1 and 2. If I can get a guy like Rice or McFadden with my 10th pick, I'll take serious consideration in drafting Vick with my 2nd pick.

And why not? There is a risk in injury, but the potential reward is outstanding. In most games, Vick runs for at least 40 yards and will scamper to the end zone himself for a score. In standard formats, that rushing TD would give him two more points than a TD pass. So with the rushing yards, that's an extra six points a game he is getting over other QBs. It's like all QBs in the league start the week with zero fantasy points and Vick starts with six. Over the course of the season, you are looking at an additional 100 points. Significant. With the potency of the Eagles offense, you could still select Kolb in a late round as a Vick handcuff and be in good shape in case of a Vick injury.