The Fantasy Theory

The Fantasy Football season has ended, and like any competitor following a competition, I like to assess what worked and what didn't.

Grievances

It was five minutes before the draft started and I didn’t know what to do.

Oh, I had a plan. Two plans actually. That was the predicament. If I just had one plan I could’ve approached my chicken wings with reckless abandon and giggled like a school girl all the way to my first pick. But it wasn’t that kind of year. It wasn’t that kind of draft.

When the perverbial “straws were drawn” earlier in the week, I had inherited the 8th pick in the draft. Eighth pick is good if you like seeing your buddies take all the good running backs before it gets to you. Then, you must decide on a mediocre RB, or an elite QB or WR. You have to go elite in the first round. You have to go low risk. You have to go big points.

After ranking my players and participating in some mock drafts earlier in the week, I realized what I would have to do with my 8th pick. I would have to draft Drew Brees and scramble for good RB’s the rest of the draft, or take my chances on getting a slew of RBs and WRs early, and hope for a good QB later. Which is where Joe Flacco comes in. This Ravens QB is entering his 3rd season, and his stock has been rising. Rookie year: 14 TDs, 12 INTs. Second year: 21 TDs, 12 INTs. Third year: ?. What the crap is Joe Flacco going to do with his 3rd year? Well, he’s a year older and wiser. He’s healthy (was not last year). He’s got two new, solid receivers (Boldin & Stallworth). Can’t he throw 9 more TD’s? He could have 30 TDs and 4,500 yards. That would make him a Top 5 QB. And I can get him in the 7th round. He could be my “good QB later”.

Or he could completely suck, like so many fantasy players do. That’s the dilemma. I could go no risk with Brees and get a decent draft. Or I could go high risk with Flacco and pin the hopes of my season largely on his success. This is what I couldn’t decide on. But I’m convinced Flacco will produce, so with my first pick, I took Randy Moss, not Drew Brees.

My second pick was Ryan Grant. I don’t love Ryan Grant. I wasn’t thrilled about picking him. But the last thing I wanted was to pick a QB there and have it get back to me in the 3rd with no RB1s left. I estimated Beanie Wells would probably be my RB1, and that was unacceptable. So, Grant. Hopefully I won’t have to change my team’s name to Buried in Grant’s Tomb.

Third round pick was Jamaal Charles. In my estimation, he was the only RB1 left in the draft. Had to take him there. Fourth round pick was Marques Colston. He’s on my team every year, but always as WR1. This year he is my WR2, which I feel much better about. Meanwhile, QBs had been flying off the board early. Most of the good ones were gone by the 4th round. Flacco was still there. The guys around me all had QBs, which was good. I felt good about waiting until Round 6 to grab him. But Round 5 came along and Rose and Jennings, who sat at the beginning of the round, still didn’t have a QB. Please no. Please no.

Jennings picks Favre! Rose passes on his QB. Flacco will be safe unless a monstrosity occurs and someone drafts their backup QB in the 5th. The pick comes to me and I select Matt Forte. For my 3rd RB, I’ll take that value, even though I’m not crazy about him. Sixth round comes and I snatch Flacco.

The rest of the draft for me became about delaying my TE pick. After Finley went, I wasn’t real excited about anyone. I could’ve gotten Witten in the 7th. It was between him and Justin Forsett. Forsett could make my season. Witten could not. I took Forsett. Witten gets snatched up before the pick can get back to me. That’s okay, now I’m eyeing my sleeper TE, Zach Miller, who I can probably get in Round 11 or 12. And then Hartye grabs him in the 10th round. That pick and Birch grabbing Malcom Floyd were my daggers of the evening. Anyway, in Round Who Cares, I got Shiancoe, TE for the Vikes. It’s okay; viable TEs will surface on the waiver wire if Shank sucks.

And that was the draft. The Flacco Theory will be tested. If he has a big season, I think I will be in the mix again. If not, my team could be in serious trouble. Either way, I had fun taking a calculated risk with a somewhat undesirable draft position. Let the games begin!

In years to come, Shonn Greene will be a household name in the NFL. Not only is he young and talented, but with a name like Shonn Greene, how can he go wrong? He plays for the New York Jets and wears green (and Greene) every game. Marketing genius. And his name isn't Sean. Nope, that would've been too easy and boring. So his first name is creatively spelled S-H-O-N-N. Brilliant. He has to be special, who else spells "Sean" like that? It almost was not to be though; his parents were also considering Peetur, Myke, and Bawb.

Great names aside, going into the 2009 season Greene was a talented rookie sitting at RB3 on the Jets' depth chart. Many fantasy owners appreciated his skill and prospects for the season, making him an interesting flyer pick in drafts. As the season progressed, Greene had a few good games but struggled to take carries away from the ageless wonder, Thomas Jones. That is, until the playoffs, where Greene shoots have been forming in the Jets backfield, perhaps foreshadowing the blossoming of the league's next stud fantasy RB.

In the last two games against the Bengals and Chargers, Greene has managed 45 touches, 263 yds, and 2 TDs. Compare those numbers with Jones (29 touches, 75 yds, 2 TDs), and you can see the inevitable trend emerging. The youthful, speedy Greene is replacing the old thumper Jones as the Jets RB. And going into the 2010 fantasy season, this is something to get excited about.

Firstly, the only thing holding Greene back from a solid 2010 season is Thomas Jones. Jones will be 32 when the 2010 NFL season starts, and according to databasefootball.com, the top 300 single season rushing seasons do not include a player over 31. I doubt Jones will defy all logic again and produce yet another good season. If we can assume he is breaking down, the only other competition in this backfield is Leon Washington. Washington is more of a utility guy than a true RB, and he will be coming off a severe knee injury. I believe Greene will get more carries than any other Jets back next year.

But wait! There's more! The Jets offense promises to be more balanced, with a budding QB and TE, a #1 receiver who should be more in sync with the offense, and oh yeah, three pro-bowl offensive linemen (Mangold, Ferguson, Faneca). A balanced attack should lead to more opportunities for touchdowns, and if Greene can snatch some goalline carries from Jones, watch out!

Greene will be relevant fantasy-wise in 2010. The questions are "how relevant?" and "where should you draft him?". I believe with Greene's playoff performance to end 2009, he has gone from being a middle round pick to a 5th or 6th rounder. I'd love to snag him as my 3rd RB, but that may be wishful thinking. Others will be aware that this "Greene Shoot" is primed for fantasy stardom.

I have a confession. When it comes to Fantasy Football, I don't like white guys unless they're my QB. Some may construe that as being racist, which might be true if I were not in fact, white. Yes, I think most of my race sucks at football. When I see a white guy in the backfield, I take a bathroom break. When a white receiver catches a pass and runs past someone, I invite the neighbors over and we have a little party. Black dudes make up most of the NFL as it is no secret that for sheer genetic make-up, they are superior athletically.

Which is why Wes Welker is such an anomaly.

Welker, the Patriots go-to slot receiver, finished as a Top-10 Fantasy WR this season, totaling the most receptions in the league (123). His cutting ability and quickness are forces to be reckon with. Unfortunately for me, I've never believed in him enough to draft him. I always thought he would make a great Flex play, but with that philosophy I was never willing to draft him higher than a WR3. By that time, he wasn't available. Certainly, he has proven to be a WR1 on most accounts, especially a PPR league. And just when I started to believe in this Oklahoma white boy and his perennial fantasy all-star awesomeness, he tears up his knee in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Texans.

And who is Welker's replacement in the playoffs? Uhh, if my eyes don't deceive me, Wes Welker is Wes Welker's replacement. Oh wait, no, that's Julian Edelman, another surprisingly little fast white guy. Belichick is so smart he's developed his own cloning machine. Forget Spygate, the Patriots are creating little fast white guys in the bowels of Gillette stadium. Anyway, Edelman comes out and scores two touchdowns in his first playoff game. Not bad.

The reason this is all worth talking about is fantasy owners will have quite a conundrum come 2010 draft time. Welker might still be rehabbing his repaired knee come September (the process takes eight months and he was injured in January). In all likelihood, he will be just "healthy" enough to tempt fantasy owners into drafting him. And they'll have to pay a hefty price. Welker will probably go in the third or fourth round, giving his owners their best or second best WR- on paper. Mark my words, that knee will not be ready. I cannot remember a time where a player has had a significant knee injury the previous year and returned to his full potential the following year.

Meanwhile, Edelman makes an intriguing draft pick for all the opposite reasons. Brady is going to chuck it to his slot guy all game long, and if it's not Welker, it will be Edelman. Edelman could probably be snatched up for cheap once you grab three or four less risk/more potential WR's.

I finally believe in Wes Welker and his awesome whiteyness. I just don't believe he'll be the same guy in 2010. And for his high draft price, once again, he will not be on my team. This year though, I don't think I'll be jealous.